Question: What do you think about the "end of the world" theory?

Murray Collins answered on 22 Mar 2011:

Hi!
You mention an end of the world ‘theory’. Might be a funny place to discuss this point, but I do want to say that for scientists a theory is a way of explaining something. So a theory is an explanation. But in its common use in English people seem to associate the word ‘theory’ with something that is an untested idea, which is actually a ‘hypothesis’ in science. Anyway, now I have that rant out of the way I’ll get back to your question!

Every generation and society seems to have its fixation with predictions of catastrophe. However these are based upon interpretations of ancient texts, Mayan calendars, you name it there’s someone willing to find a pattern in anything that shows the world is going to end. However, there is no evidence whatsoever for the any of the predictions that the world is coming to an end very soon. It’s rubbish, but also dangerous since humans are susceptible to getting caught up in mass delusion and hysteria. This is very dangerous when charismatic individuals harness such cataclysmic predictions for their own ends, since people get manipulated. (I’m thinking here about sects, even mass suicides people get talked into because there are aliens coming/the end of the world is nigh etc etc).

However, there are a specific set of problems we face as humans living on earth which are very real and unfortunately worsening. But these problems aren’t based on some interpretation of some ancient text, rather they are based upon decades of scientific research. Some of these problems do indeed have the potential to very significantly change the way in which we live, and the future of human societies, which to a certain extent will end our current way of living.

Problems include:
1. Climate change (and also the end of cheap energy): I have written a few things about CC here http://ias.im/35.1640
2. Biodiversity loss: this is a huge problem if not only for food production. Despite huge increases in fishing vessels and huge increases in the sizes of nets used etc, fish catches globally aren’t increasing. In fact they seem to be falling. Doh!
This means the amount we catch for the amount of effort we are putting in is falling. We have already eaten many of the big fish in the sea and are increasingly having to switch to new strange species we never ate before. We are eating our way through the food web. Doh!
We can’t carry on very easily like this without causing major collapses in our fisheries. Yet we know how to manage fisheries – it is more of a political matter to actually just do it!

3. Human population: this underpins many of the challenges we face. More people who want to consume more. Population level predictions suggest we may expect to see another 2billion people living on earth in the next three decades. That’s another two India loads of people on the planet! All of those people need to be fed, but in the context of changing climate which makes extreme weather events more likely which will make crop production harder and less consistent.

So, unfortunately we have plenty of real challenges to face up to now and in the immediate future without having to look to Mayan calendars!